The United States is on pace for the largest one-year decline in murders ever recorded, according to a new analysis first reported by Axios. The crime data shows a dramatic drop compared with last year.
The analysis was conducted by crime statistics expert Jeff Asher. His review, cited by Axios, shows the country is experiencing a sharp reversal from the violent crime surge seen during the COVID era.
The Real-Time Crime Index compiles data from 570 law enforcement agencies nationwide. It shows murders are down by nearly 20 percent compared with the same period in 2024.
The data currently runs through October. Official FBI crime figures for 2025 are expected to be released next year.
The index has historically tracked closely with federal crime data. Analysts say this makes the current estimates a strong early indicator.
The decline is not limited to homicides. Other serious crimes have also fallen across the country.
Motor vehicle thefts are down 23.2 percent. Robberies have declined 18.3 percent, while aggravated assaults are down 7.5 percent.
The index excludes manslaughter, self-defense, negligence, and accidental killings. It focuses strictly on intentional homicides and related crimes.
Major U.S. cities have recorded significant drops in murders. Chicago saw killings fall by nearly 28 percent.
New York City and Memphis both reported declines close to 20 percent. Los Angeles County recorded murders down by nearly 19 percent.
New Orleans also saw improvement. Murders there declined by about 7.5 percent.
Washington, D.C., posted one of the largest reductions in the nation. Murders in the capital are down nearly 28 percent this year.
In August, Donald Trump declared a crime emergency in Washington. He ordered the National Guard to assist local law enforcement.
Police data later showed immediate results. Homicides in the city dropped nearly 60 percent in August 2025 compared with August 2024.
Trump has made violent crime a top priority in his second term. His administration has expanded federal support for local police departments.
In July, Trump signed an executive order targeting crime and public disorder. The order authorized additional federal resources to help restore public safety.
National Guard units were also deployed to Memphis, Tennessee. The city experienced a nearly 20 percent drop in murders following the deployment.
Republican leaders credit the administration’s actions for quick improvements. They argue that visible federal backing has strengthened local crime enforcement.
Crime analysts note that national crime rates have been declining since 2021. Both the Real-Time Crime Index and FBI data show the same trend.
Experts caution that crime trends are influenced by many factors. Still, they say the size of this year’s drop is historic.
Not every area followed the national pattern. A small number of jurisdictions saw increases in murders.
Gilbert, Arizona, and Johnston County, North Carolina, both reported homicide spikes of 600 percent. Those increases came from relatively small baseline numbers.
Asher also reviewed data from the 30 U.S. cities with the highest murder totals in 2024. Data from 29 cities was available through November.
Phoenix was tracked through September. Murders across those cities were down nearly 20 percent.
Mass killings have also declined nationwide. They have reached their lowest level since 2006.
Taken together, the numbers point to a broad and sustained drop in violent crime. The trend represents one of the most significant public safety improvements in modern U.S. history.