A recent NPR-Marist poll reveals that independent voters claim their support for former President Donald Trump remains unchanged or has increased following his conviction in New York City.
The detailed numbers from the poll show that 15% of independent voters are more inclined to support Trump following his conviction, while 74% stated that the conviction would not affect their decision at all.
Only a minor segment of 11% of independents feel that the conviction would make them less likely to support him.
This scenario presents a net positive for Trump, giving him a +4 percentage point advantage among this critical voter demographic.
The conviction seems to have a minimal impact on Republican voters, with 10% saying it would make them less likely to support Trump.
On the Democratic side, a surprising 7% of voters expressed increased likelihood to support Trump, creating a slight +3 percent advantage for Biden within his party.
However, when independents are considered, Trump appears to have a slight overall edge.
The implications of these findings are significant. The conviction, carried out by Democratic prosecutors and a jury in the predominantly Democratic New York City, appears to be counterproductive for the Biden reelection campaign.
The trial, one of several legal battles Trump is facing—including FBI raids and multiple prosecutions—has only hardened the resolve of his base, according to the poll results.
Furthermore, the conviction seems to be unpopular among independents, who generally disfavor political prosecutions.
This sentiment could be pivotal in an election expected to draw around 160 million voters, potentially swinging an additional 1.6 million votes in Trump’s favor and away from Biden, resulting in a net change of approximately 3.2 million votes.
The Biden campaign has responded to Trump’s conviction with stern warnings about the threats he allegedly poses to democracy, emphasizing his “increasingly unhinged campaign of revenge and retribution.” However, this approach might be backfiring, as it appears to echo the type of political persecution that many voters, especially independents, are wary of.
Trump’s campaign, seizing on this sentiment, is likely to continue framing the legal actions against him as a political “witch hunt.” As Trump himself declared in response to his conviction, “This isn’t over.”