Recent polling data from key battleground states suggest that former President Donald Trump is making significant gains against Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the White House.
The surveys indicate that Trump could secure a decisive victory with 296 electoral votes in November, though the race remains close in several of these swing states.
According to Trafalgar polling, conducted between August 28-30, Trump is projected to win key Blue Wall states, narrowly leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In Michigan, Trump holds a slight edge over Harris, leading 47% to 46.6%.
Pennsylvania shows a somewhat wider margin, with Trump ahead by 2% at 47% to 45%. This potential victory in Pennsylvania would surpass his 2016 win in the state, where he won by a modest 0.72%.
Wisconsin presents a similar scenario, with Trump leading Harris 47% to 46%. This margin, although narrow, is significant given the state’s historical voting patterns. Trump won Wisconsin by 0.77% in 2016 but lost it by 0.63% in 2020.
Despite these leads, it’s important to note that all three states are still considered statistical dead heats, with the RealClearPolitics polling average currently favoring Harris.
In other key battlegrounds, Trump is also making strides.
Insider Advantage polling, conducted between August 29-31, shows Trump leading in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina.
In Arizona, Trump holds a razor-thin lead of 49% to 48%, a margin smaller than the 0.3% by which Biden won the state in 2020.
Nevada also shows a close race, with Trump leading Harris 48% to 47%, buoyed by a strong 9.5% lead with independent voters.
North Carolina, another critical state, has Trump ahead by a similar 49% to 48% margin.
However, not all the news is positive for Trump. In Georgia, Harris maintains a narrow lead of 48% to 47.6%, with the Vice President holding a slim advantage among independents, leading 45.2% to 45.1%.
Meanwhile, Harris’s campaign appears to be on the defensive as Trump gains momentum in traditionally blue states.
Following a lackluster post-convention performance that failed to deliver the expected boost in support, Harris is focusing on shoring up her position in these states.
Reports indicate that Harris and her top surrogates, including Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and her husband Doug Emhoff, are now focusing their efforts on blue states, leaving behind planned swing state visits.
Harris is expected to visit New Hampshire, where her lead has dwindled to just four points, while Walz returns to Minnesota, where Trump has cut Harris’s lead from ten to five points since Walz joined the ticket. Emhoff is reportedly headed to Virginia for a fundraising event, another state where Trump has polled unexpectedly strong.
This defensive strategy comes on the heels of a challenging week for the Harris campaign. The week was marked by controversial decisions and a failed attack on 13 Gold Star families, which backfired spectacularly.
Adding to the campaign’s woes, an ABC News/Ipsos poll revealed that Harris received “no overall bounce in support” after the Democratic National Convention.
As the race tightens, the next few weeks will be crucial for both campaigns, with each side vying for the narrow margins that could decide the outcome in November.