The Democratic Party is losing voters at a historic pace, according to a New York Times analysis of registration data.
Between the 2020 and 2024 elections, Democrats lost 2.1 million registered voters in the 30 states that track party affiliation. Over the same period, Republicans gained 2.4 million. The NYT reports this shift is happening nationwide, and there’s no sign it’s slowing down.
The Times based its findings on data from L2, a nonpartisan voter tracking firm. Even in blue states like California and New York, Democrat registration declined sharply. In California alone, Democrats lost over 680,000 voters. In New York, they lost more than 305,000.
Four key battleground states—North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada—all saw a shift toward the GOP. Trump won all four on Nov. 5. North Carolina flipped completely, with Democrats losing 115,000 voters and Republicans gaining 140,000.
Michael Pruser, director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, called the trend relentless. “There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill. This is month after month, year after year,” he told the Times.
Democrats’ registration edge over Republicans dropped from nearly 11 percentage points in 2020 to just over six points in 2024, based on the states with party registration data.
In 2018, 34% of new voters registered as Democrats. Just 20% were Republicans. By 2024, Republicans had pulled ahead, 29% of new voters picked the GOP, while only 26% chose the Democrats.
The shift is being driven in part by Donald Trump’s growing support among men, younger voters, and Latinos. The Times noted that traditional Democrat outreach, especially through nonprofits targeting minority and young voters, is no longer working.
For years, Democrats relied on tax-advantaged nonprofits to register Black, Latino, and younger voters. These efforts assumed those groups would vote blue. But Trump’s gains among working-class nonwhite voters have disrupted that strategy.
Now, reaching likely Democrat voters is far more difficult and expensive. Political groups face higher fundraising barriers. They also receive fewer tax benefits than nonprofits. The cost to register and mobilize a single Democrat voter can run into the hundreds of dollars, the NYT reports.
And unlike previous years, party leaders are struggling to find a new message or a new leader who can reverse the trend. Without a clear plan, the losses may grow worse.
“There seems to be no end to this,” said Pruser.