With less than a month until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris is witnessing a decline in her polling numbers against former President Donald Trump.
Three major national polls indicate that Trump is closing the gap, signaling potential trouble for the Democratic campaign.
In the latest NBC News poll of registered voters, Harris has lost her previous six-point lead.
Trump now holds a slim advantage of 47% to Harris’s 46% when third-party candidates are included.
Similarly, an ABC News/Ipsos survey shows voters moving toward Trump nationally.
Among likely voters, Harris’s lead has narrowed to just two points, standing at 50% to Trump’s 48%. This is a significant tightening from the six-point edge she held last month (52% to 46%).
A CBS News/YouGov poll also reflects this trend. Harris leads Trump nationally by a marginal 51% to 48% among likely voters, a one-point drop from the previous month.
In battleground states, the race is even tighter, with Harris ahead by just one point at 50% to 49%.
These shifts have impacted the RealClearPolitics average of recent national polls, where Harris’s lead has slipped to 1.4 percentage points, down from 2.2 points just days earlier.
Trump is also leading in the RCP’s no-tossup map of swing state contests.
Political analysts suggest that Harris needs a national polling advantage of at least five to six points to secure a victory, considering factors like the Electoral College and historical polling inaccuracies that favor Republicans.
The current numbers are causing concern among Democrats, with internal polls reportedly showing Harris trailing in key swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan.
On the Republican side, confidence is growing. Veteran political journalist Mark Halperin noted that “there are a lot of really worried Democrats and there are really no worried Republicans, including at Mar-a-Lago.”
Some GOP insiders are even suggesting that the race may already be decided in their favor.
Contributing to Harris’s decline is her slipping favorability rating.
The NBC News survey reports that 43% of respondents view her positively, while 49% have a negative perception—a drop that is particularly pronounced among younger and independent voters.
Issue-specific polling further highlights challenges for Harris.
According to the NBC poll, voters favor Trump on critical topics such as the economy (46% to 38%), inflation (44% to 37%), immigration (46% to 36%), and handling the Middle East conflict (42% to 34%).
Harris leads on issues like abortion rights (47% to 32%), advocating for the middle class (42% to 32%), and safeguarding democracy (44% to 38%).
Both campaigns are ramping up efforts in the final weeks. Harris is slated to visit pivotal states including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, will campaign in North Carolina to mark the start of the state’s early voting period.
Trump is also intensifying his outreach, beginning the week with events in Pennsylvania and Georgia. His vice-presidential pick, Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, will make solo stops in Pennsylvania and North Carolina later in the week.
The final weeks will be crucial for both candidates as they vie for undecided voters in key battleground states.