Iran has begun direct talks with factions in Syria’s new leadership after the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally of Tehran.
The move is aimed at safeguarding Iran’s influence in Syria and the region amid ongoing political changes, according to senior Iranian officials.
The fall of Assad, which occurred after a swift advance by a militia alliance led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, marks a historic turning point in the Middle East.
For years, Assad’s government provided Iran with a critical foothold in the Arab world, facilitating its broader regional ambitions. However, the sudden regime change has raised concerns in Tehran about maintaining its influence and avoiding a hostile trajectory with Syria’s new rulers.
Iranian officials are keenly aware of the potential risks posed by a post-Assad Syria distancing itself from Tehran. Such a development could disrupt the land supply routes used by Hezbollah—Iran’s key ally—and cut off Tehran’s access to the Mediterranean, undermining its strategic positioning against Israel.
Despite these challenges, Iran’s leadership has focused on using diplomacy to build stable ties with Syria’s new administration. Tehran has already opened communication with two groups within Syria’s emerging leadership.
These efforts will be assessed closely in upcoming discussions within Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, a key body responsible for national security strategy. According to one senior official, these moves are intended to keep Iran engaged in Syria’s future direction.
“The main concern for Iran is whether Assad’s successor will push Syria away from Tehran’s orbit,” one official noted. “That is a scenario Iran is keen to avoid.”
The political upheaval in Syria comes at a particularly sensitive time for Iran, which faces renewed pressure from the impending return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency.
Trump’s previous administration pursued a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, including severe economic sanctions and the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, a pivotal figure in Iran’s military and regional strategy.
Iranian officials have expressed concern that Trump could leverage Assad’s removal to intensify pressure on Tehran, potentially seeking concessions or attempting to destabilize the Islamic Republic. Iran appears to be considering two options in response: either to take a defensive stance in Iraq or to pursue a potential deal with the United States under the new Trump administration.
Iran invested heavily in propping up Assad during Syria’s civil war, which began in 2011, deploying its Revolutionary Guards and spending billions of dollars to secure its “Axis of Resistance” against U.S. and Israeli influence.
Assad’s fall has severely disrupted Iran’s network of allies and proxies, weakening its regional influence and exposing it to greater risks from Israel and other adversaries.
Iran holds significant stakes in Syria’s post-Assad era. Tehran’s engagement with Syria’s new leadership reflects its effort to retain influence in the region. With Donald Trump set to return to the White House, Iran faces renewed external pressures that threaten to complicate its strategy.