A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll reveals significant changes in voter support just two weeks before Election Day.
Former President Donald Trump is gaining ground among Hispanic voters and making inroads with Black voters, while Vice President Kamala Harris is losing support in these key groups.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters between October 14 and 18. It shows Harris leading Trump nationally by only one point—46% to 45%—which is within the margin of error.
Trump Leads Among Hispanic Voters
- Trump leads Harris among Hispanic voters, 49% to 38%.
- This is a notable increase from 2020 when President Joe Biden secured 58% of the Hispanic vote.
- Increased Hispanic support could benefit Trump in swing states like Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanics make up about one-third of the population.
Harris Loses Support Among Black Voters
- Harris has 72% support among Black voters, while Trump has 17%.
- Previous Democratic candidates like Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden received between 90-95% of the Black vote.
- Black voters are crucial in urban areas of swing states such as Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Detroit, and Atlanta.
- Harris’s decreased support could impact her performance in these key regions.
Campaign Trail Highlights
Over the weekend, Trump visited a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, a pivotal swing state. He mingled with voters and took a jab at Harris, saying, “I’ve now worked [at McDonald’s] for 15 minutes more than Kamala,” referencing her claim of having worked there.
Harris responded online, stating she held a summer job at McDonald’s and implying that Trump wouldn’t understand due to his substantial inheritance.
Current Polling Averages
According to Real Clear Politics’ polling average:
- Trump leads in seven critical swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. His leads are narrow, all within two percentage points.
- Harris leads by 4 to 7 percentage points in Minnesota, New Mexico, and Virginia.
- Trump holds a 7-point lead in Ohio.