The United States is on track for a severe hospital bed crisis that could result in hundreds of thousands of excess deaths each year, according to a new study from UCLA.
Researchers warn that if current trends continue, the nation’s hospitals will exceed the critical 85% occupancy threshold by 2032.
This is not just about having enough physical hospital beds—it’s about whether hospitals have enough doctors, nurses, and support staff to keep them operational.
The number of staffed hospital beds has dropped dramatically in recent years, declining from 802,000 to 674,000.
Meanwhile, hospital occupancy has surged to 75%—a sharp increase from the 64% average before the pandemic. While this might not sound alarming on paper, the consequences are deadly.
According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), when ICU occupancy reaches 75%, an estimated 12,000 excess deaths occur just two weeks later. If general hospital occupancy reaches 85% or more nationwide, delays in care, medication errors, and emergency room gridlock could cause hundreds of thousands of additional deaths per year.
The COVID-19 pandemic put an unprecedented strain on America’s hospitals, but the numbers show that things have not returned to normal. In fact, hospitals are as full—or fuller—than they were during the height of the pandemic, even in 2024.
Unlike previous crises, this is not being driven by an increase in hospitalizations. The number of people admitted to hospitals each year has remained relatively stable. Instead, the problem is a shortage of staffed beds, which has been driven by two major factors:
- A severe shortage of nurses and hospital staff
- The growing influence of private equity firms in healthcare
Healthcare staffing shortages, particularly among registered nurses, have made it impossible for hospitals to operate at full capacity. Making matters worse, the Biden administration’s June 2024 decision to freeze visas for international nurses has cut off a vital source of staffing, leaving hospitals even more short-handed.
At the same time, Wall Street firms have been buying up hospitals and gutting them for profit. Private equity companies have slashed staff, closed unprofitable departments, and in some cases, shut down entire hospitals. This has hit rural communities especially hard, forcing residents in small towns to travel hours to receive care.
Looking ahead, the situation is set to deteriorate even further. The aging Baby Boomer generation will drive yearly hospital stays from 36.2 million in 2025 to 40.2 million by 2035. If the trend of declining hospital capacity continues, the entire U.S. hospital system could be operating at crisis levels within the next eight years.
Some states are already dangerously close to the breaking point. Rhode Island’s hospitals are currently running at 88% capacity, while Wyoming’s remain at a relatively safe 43%. But hospital shortages don’t stay confined to state lines. When hospitals in one area reach capacity, patients are forced to seek care elsewhere, creating ripple effects across the system.
Experts are calling for immediate action to prevent a full-scale collapse of the hospital system. Among the proposed solutions:
- Reversing Biden’s visa freeze to bring in much-needed international healthcare workers
- Reforming hospital reimbursement policies to prevent hospital closures and bankruptcies
- Reining in private equity firms that are buying up hospitals and prioritizing profits over patient care
- Expanding alternative care models to divert non-critical patients away from overwhelmed emergency rooms
Some hospitals are already experimenting with innovative solutions. For example, UCLA’s Next Day Clinic program at Olive View-UCLA Medical Center has successfully prevented hundreds of hospitalizations each year by offering outpatient care for patients who would otherwise need to be admitted.
Still, these efforts may not be enough if policymakers don’t step in. Dr. Richard Leuchter, the study’s lead author, warns that the U.S. is running out of time to fix the crisis before the hospital system reaches a breaking point.
If nothing changes, the U.S. will face a national hospital bed shortage by 2032, resulting in longer wait times, overcrowded emergency rooms, and preventable deaths on a massive scale. While some of the blame falls on staffing shortages and economic pressures, government policies and private equity greed are accelerating the problem.