With only days left before Election Day, over 50 million Americans have already voted in the 2024 presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, nearly 27 million of these ballots were cast in person, while more than 24 million were mail-in votes.
While early voting has become increasingly popular over recent election cycles, the dynamics of this year’s participation suggest a notable shift. Historically, Democrats have led in early voting, especially by mail.
But in 2024, the Republican turnout has seen an unexpected boost, with higher early in-person participation across key battleground states compared to 2020.
Out of 26 states with data on registered party voters, Republicans are leading in early votes in 12 states, according to data from Oct. 28.
Arizona and Georgia are among the pivotal states where Republicans have shown increased early participation.
In Arizona, more than 588,000 of the 1.4 million early ballots cast were from registered Republicans, compared to around 486,000 from Democrats. Georgia, which saw an unprecedented 328,000 voters on its first day of early voting on Oct. 15, has already recorded more than 3 million ballots, with Republicans reportedly taking advantage of early in-person options.
In Pennsylvania, a state Biden narrowly won in 2020, the numbers also reflect higher-than-expected early voting by Republicans, who accounted for approximately 31.5 percent of mail-in ballots compared to 23 percent in 2020.
This marks a 30 percent increase, potentially influencing the tight race between Harris and Trump. Democrats, however, still hold an edge in mail-in ballots in some states but face a tighter margin compared to past elections.
Data also reveals a gender gap in early voting. Women are leading early voter turnout, making up approximately 54 percent of early ballots across states such as Michigan, Virginia, and North Carolina.
This trend follows increased female voter registration in recent election cycles and a stronger Democratic lean among women.
However, older demographics, particularly those over 41, comprise nearly 80 percent of early votes cast so far, which could sway results in favor of candidates who appeal more strongly to older voters.
Other battleground states are also reporting historic early voting totals. North Carolina, for instance, saw a record-setting 353,000 ballots on its first day of early voting and has since tallied over 2.8 million early votes, accounting for 36 percent of the state’s electorate.
Michigan, which does not register voters by party affiliation, recently introduced in-person early voting and has reported over 1.5 million returned ballots.
Meanwhile, Nevada, where Republicans are showing a strong in-person voting presence, has reported nearly 40 percent of ballots cast by GOP voters compared to 35 percent by Democrats.
The surge in early voting, nearing a third of the total votes cast in 2020, reflects the high stakes of this year’s election, particularly in tightly contested battleground states.
Both parties continue to mobilize their bases, urging supporters to take advantage of early voting opportunities to avoid potential Election Day issues.
In contrast to the pandemic-driven 2020 cycle, 2024’s early voting patterns reveal a broader embrace of pre-election voting across party lines, especially among Republicans.
This shift could signal closer margins in traditionally Democratic early voting tallies, making it difficult to predict outcomes solely based on current early voting statistics.
With the tightening race between Trump and Harris and early voting numbers soaring, the 2024 election has already demonstrated a marked shift in voting behaviors.
As Election Day approaches, both campaigns are doubling down on efforts in battleground states, with Democrats focusing on younger voters and Republicans maintaining strong early turnout efforts.
The outcome remains highly uncertain, and experts predict a close finish with final results potentially hinging on these early votes and late-deciding voters across the nation.