An election model by J.L. Partners and DailyMail.com suggests that Donald Trump has opened up a commanding 10-point lead over Kamala Harris.
According to the model, which takes into account polling data, historical election results, and economic indicators, Trump’s chances of winning the White House have risen to 55.2%, compared to Harris’ 44.6%.
Despite Harris still having a slight edge in the popular vote—predicted at 50.8%—the electoral college advantage seems to be tilting in Trump’s favor.
The key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, often referred to as the “Blue Wall,” are now leaning towards Trump, giving him a stronger path to the presidency.
Harris’ High Point Behind Her?
Callum Hunter, a data scientist at J.L. Partners, noted that while Harris gained momentum after entering the race and performed well in their recent debate, the trends are beginning to shift back in Trump’s favor.
“Things are continuing to move against Harris,” Hunter said, explaining that while September was a high point for Harris, current trends suggest her peak may be behind her.
Harris experienced a surge in fundraising and polling numbers after joining the race, even besting Trump in their September debate according to many measures.
However, Trump’s state-by-state support remains strong, especially in key battlegrounds.
Trump’s Path to Victory
Pennsylvania, one of the most critical swing states, has been pivotal in Trump’s rise. His probability of winning the state has surged to 58%, an eight-point jump from where he stood following the debate.
According to the model, if Trump secures Pennsylvania, he wins the election every time.
The model also highlights how narrow the race in Pennsylvania truly is. With just 27,000 voters—less than 1%—separating the two candidates, the state could ultimately decide who occupies the White House come January.
Other battleground states, including Wisconsin and Michigan, show similar trends favoring Trump.
Additional polling data aligns with the election model’s findings. A recent national Quinnipiac Poll places Trump one point ahead of Harris, while a New York Times/Siena Poll shows Trump leading in key Sun Belt states such as Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.
As things stand, Trump has more paths to victory than his rival. While Harris holds a lead in the national popular vote, Trump’s dominance in battleground states may be the decisive factor.
Although anything can happen between now and Election Day, one thing is clear: the race is tightening, and Trump appears to have the upper hand.