A new poll conducted by DailyMail.com and J.L. Partners has revealed findings that may prove crucial in the build-up to the 2024 presidential elections. The poll reveals that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis might be a stronger Republican candidate than former President Donald Trump when it comes to winning over independent voters.
The survey, conducted among 1,000 likely general election voters, sheds light on some pressing issues regarding the race for the presidency.
When voters were asked who they would choose if the presidential election were held today, Biden would edge past any potential Republican contender.
DeSantis stands the best chance against him, trailing Biden by a slim margin of 44% to 43%. On the other hand, Trump falls behind with a margin of 46% to 44%.
Independent voters, often seen as the tipping point in tight races, show a distinct preference for DeSantis and even Mike Pence over Trump.
DeSantis holds a five percent lead over Biden among people who identify as neither Republican nor Democratic. Former Vice President Mike Pence fares even better with a six-point lead over Biden among independents.
Surprisingly, despite Trump’s clear lead in the Republican primary, his appeal among independent voters is the least among all potential Republican candidates.
For conservatives, this presents some serious food for thought. Trump’s undeniable hold on the Republican Party is evident, with polling averages giving him a more than 30-point lead over DeSantis and around 90% of Republicans saying they would back him if he were the nominee.
However, Trump’s polarizing nature and ongoing legal troubles could alienate the broader electorate, giving Biden a chance to retain his presidency.
Is this a cause for concern for conservatives?
Well, the poll tells us something about Biden as well. His appeal seems to be diminishing. 71% of voters, including half of Democrats, believe Biden, at 80 years of age, is too old to be president. [Source]
This sentiment, coupled with a prevailing sense of being worse off since he took power, could play into Republican hands.
To take advantage of this, they must present a candidate who can win over not only the Republican base but also the independent voters who often decide the fate of elections.
According to the poll, Mike Pence is the one most appealing to independent voters. However, his popularity within the Republican Party could hold him back.
Only 72 percent of the party would rally behind Pence. These are low numbers when compared to DeSantis’ 84 percent and Trump’s 90 percent.
The candidate that can rally both the Republican Party and independent voters is DeSantis. So far, he has remained in Trump’s shadow, however, he is now emerging as a serious contender.
DeSantis faced some setbacks that diminished his appeal among Republicans. His feud with Disney is a weapon that Trump can use against him.
Trump already seized the opportunity to criticize DeSantis on his Truth Social Platform, saying, “DeSantis is being absolutely destroyed by Disney.” He also predicted, “Disney’s next move will be the announcement that no more money will be invested in Florida because of the Governor.”
Disney did pull investments out of Florida. They announced the cancellation of a $1 billion Lake Nona office campus plan that would have brought 2,000 jobs to Florida.
This is a problem for DeSantis, and it’s a win-win for Trump.
DeSantis’ team, meanwhile, is confident that their candidate stands a better chance of winning the general election than Trump.
As we move closer to the 2024 election, the narrative seems to be shifting. While Trump’s hold over the party is indisputable, his potential to polarize might motivate Democratic voters more.
These are early days, and the landscape might change dramatically as we move closer to the election.
But one thing is clear – the candidate who manages to win over the independent voters will have a significant edge.
What do you think? Can Trump ultimately win over independent voters? Or, will DeSantis be able to win over the GOP?
The stakes are high, and the choices made by the Republican party now could shape the future of American politics